Emil Mathias Strøm Halseth

Research

My fields are industrial organization, auctions, and grocery retail – how firms compete with each other in markets, studied with quasi-experimental methods, structural econometrics, and surveys.

Publications

• “The Effect of Cross-Border Shopping on Commodity Tax Revenue: Results from Norway's COVID-19 Border Closings” with Richard Friberg, Frode Steen, and Simen A. Ulsaker The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 126(4), 733–772, 2024 – awarded the journal's prize for the best article published in 2024 · full text at publisher (open access)
  Abstract

  We use grocery data from Norway and COVID-19 border closings to gauge the effect of cross-border shopping on commodity tax revenue. Detailed store-category level data identify differential treatment effects that depend on distance to Swedish stores. Economically significant effects extend to up to two hours' drive from the border, and even further for prominent cross-border shopping products as beer, cigarettes and soda. Across all products, cross-border shopping decreases tax revenue from VAT by 3.6% at the national level. National commodity tax revenue from carbonated soft drinks (subject to a sugar tax) is reduced by 8.1% and from cigarettes by 11.9%.

Working Papers

• “The Competitive Effects of Store-Format Repositioning: Evidence from a Norwegian Grocery Acquisition” paper (PDF) · online appendix (PDF)
  Abstract

  This paper evaluates Coop's 2015 acquisition of ICA, which raised national concentration in Norwegian grocery retail and reshaped local competition through store-format repositioning toward soft-discount. Store-level difference-in-differences estimates for a leading soft-discount incumbent imply that rival conversions to the acquirer's soft-discount format reduced sales by 4.4–12.9%, while closures increased them by 2.4–11.1%. Convenience-discount conversions show no sales response. Local product prices were unchanged, consistent with uniform national pricing, and assortments adjusted little. Nationally, food prices fell 3.8–5.2% relative to neighboring countries. These findings suggest the merger reallocated complementary firm-specific assets – ICA's locations and Coop's soft-discount concept – strengthening competition despite greater concentration.

• “Do Informed Consumers Pay Less? Evidence from a Survey with Linked Grocery Purchase Data” with Richard Friberg, Frode Steen, and Simen A. Ulsaker paper (PDF)
  Abstract

  We examine how consumer price knowledge affects prices paid in grocery markets, combining survey-based price recall data from over 2,000 Norwegian households with 18 months of linked transaction histories. Better-informed consumers pay lower prices by timing purchases to coincide with sales: a 10 percentage-point increase in price knowledge is associated with a 1.3 percent reduction in prices paid. This provides direct empirical support for the central mechanism in Varian's (1980) model of sales. Consumers who actively seek price information have higher price knowledge, suggesting that policies improving price accessibility may improve consumers' ability to identify and act on temporary discounts.

Ongoing Projects

• Local Competition and Market Structure in Norwegian Grocery Retail with Frode Steen and Simen A. Ulsaker · project manager Supported by a research grant from the Norwegian Competition Authority (Konkurransetilsynet), 2026–2028.
  Project outline

  How does the structure of local grocery markets – the number of stores and their distribution across chains – affect competition, cost efficiency, and store accessibility? The Norwegian grocery sector is highly concentrated at the national level, yet competition largely plays out in local markets, and the policy debate has centred on measures that shape local market structure: the 2024 ban on negative servitudes, proposals to cap the number of stores per chain in a local market, and the Competition Authority's new market-investigation powers, which open for structural remedies such as divestiture. This project develops and estimates a structural equilibrium model of store entry and local competition between grocery chains, building on recent frameworks in empirical industrial organization and detailed data on store locations, chain affiliation, and local market conditions. The estimated model is then used for counterfactual analyses that quantify how concrete policy interventions would affect entry patterns, market structure, competitive intensity, and consumer welfare – explicitly accounting for the chains' strategic responses.

• “Pre-empting Competitive Sales: Private Offers, Early Resolution, and Seller Information” Working paper, early draft. paper (PDF) · online appendix (PDF)
  Abstract

  A private offer can end a competitive sale before other buyers bid. We study a buyer who privately knows its value and benefit from early agreement, facing a seller with private information about the value of continuing to auction. Accepted offers must finance both the competition the parties forgo and the cost of unsuccessful attempts. Some buyers make probing offers that only sellers with weak continuation prospects accept; buyers with larger resolution benefits may pay more to secure acceptance in either state. A ban preserves access for later buyers and avoids offer costs, but sacrifices gains from early resolution. Its welfare effect depends on the surplus excluded buyers would have earned.

Master's Thesis

• “How Efficient Is Vinmonopolet's Pricing Policy? A Structural Estimation of the Norwegian Wine Auctions” with Ola Kristoffer Nestvold Master's thesis, NHH, 2019 – thesis (PDF)

Affiliations

• Associated researcher, The FOOD Research Project

Software

• PDF Scholar A reading-first PDF reader and annotator built for working with research articles, reports, and books. Free and open source (MIT) – download · source on GitHub

Contact

Work: esh@osloeconomics.no
Personal: emilmshalseth@gmail.com
Oslo Economics, Klingenberggata 7A, 0161 Oslo, Norway